> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://mintlify.com/Metaculus/metaculus/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Making Predictions

> Learn how to submit forecasts on Metaculus for different question types

Making accurate predictions on Metaculus is at the heart of the forecasting experience. This guide will walk you through the process of submitting forecasts for each question type.

## Getting Started

Before you can make a prediction, you need to:

1. Have an active Metaculus account
2. Navigate to an open question (questions must be in "open" status)
3. Read the question description, resolution criteria, and fine print carefully

<Tip>
  Take time to understand the resolution criteria before forecasting. A well-calibrated forecast starts with understanding exactly what you're predicting.
</Tip>

## Submitting Forecasts by Question Type

Metaculus supports five different question types, each with its own prediction interface.

### Binary Questions

Binary questions ask for the probability that an event will occur (Yes/No outcomes).

<Steps>
  <Step title="Open the Forecast Maker">
    Click the "Predict" button on any binary question to open the forecast interface.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Set Your Probability">
    Use the slider to set your probability estimate between 0% and 100%:

    * Move the slider left for lower probabilities
    * Move the slider right for higher probabilities
    * Or type a specific percentage directly into the input field
  </Step>

  <Step title="Review Your Prediction">
    Your current prediction appears above the slider. Review it carefully before submitting.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Submit">
    Click the "Submit Prediction" button to save your forecast.
  </Step>
</Steps>

<Tip>
  For binary questions, think in terms of probability, not certainty. A 70% prediction means you believe there's a 70% chance the event will occur.
</Tip>

### Numeric Questions

Numeric questions ask for a continuous range of values (e.g., "What will the temperature be?").

<Steps>
  <Step title="Choose Input Mode">
    Metaculus offers multiple input modes for numeric predictions:

    * **Percentile Mode**: Enter key percentiles (25th, 50th, 75th)
    * **Distribution Mode**: Draw or adjust a probability distribution
    * **Text Input Mode**: Enter specific values
  </Step>

  <Step title="Define Your Distribution">
    For percentile mode:

    * Enter your 25th percentile (you think there's a 25% chance the value will be below this)
    * Enter your 50th percentile (median - your best guess)
    * Enter your 75th percentile (you think there's a 75% chance the value will be below this)

    The system will automatically generate a smooth probability distribution based on your inputs.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Adjust for Uncertainty">
    Wider percentile ranges indicate more uncertainty. Narrow ranges indicate high confidence.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Submit">
    Review the generated distribution chart and click "Submit Prediction".
  </Step>
</Steps>

<Note>
  Pay attention to the question's scale (linear vs. logarithmic) and units. Logarithmic scales are used when values can span multiple orders of magnitude.
</Note>

### Date Questions

Date questions ask when an event will occur.

<Steps>
  <Step title="Open the Date Picker">
    Click "Predict" to open the date prediction interface.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Set Date Percentiles">
    Similar to numeric questions, enter your percentiles:

    * 25th percentile: You believe there's a 25% chance the event occurs before this date
    * 50th percentile (median): Your best estimate for when the event will occur
    * 75th percentile: You believe there's a 75% chance the event occurs before this date
  </Step>

  <Step title="Review the Distribution">
    Check the generated probability distribution over time.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Submit">
    Click "Submit Prediction" to save your forecast.
  </Step>
</Steps>

### Multiple Choice Questions

Multiple choice questions ask you to distribute probability across several discrete options.

<Steps>
  <Step title="View All Options">
    Review all available answer choices. Note that options may be ordered by default or by community prediction (CP).
  </Step>

  <Step title="Assign Probabilities">
    For each option:

    * Click on the option to expand it
    * Use the slider or text input to assign a probability
    * Ensure all probabilities sum to 100%

    The interface will show a warning if your probabilities don't sum to 100%.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Review Distribution">
    Check that your probability distribution reflects your beliefs about each outcome.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Submit">
    Click "Submit Prediction" once all probabilities are assigned correctly.
  </Step>
</Steps>

<Warning>
  For multiple choice questions, you must distribute 100% probability across all options. You cannot submit a partial forecast.
</Warning>

### Discrete Questions

Discrete questions are similar to numeric questions but with discrete bins or categories.

<Steps>
  <Step title="Understand the Bins">
    Review the discrete outcome bins (e.g., "0-10", "11-20", "21-30", etc.).
  </Step>

  <Step title="Assign Probabilities">
    Distribute probability across the bins using:

    * Sliders for each bin
    * Direct numerical input
    * Or percentile input mode
  </Step>

  <Step title="Account for Out-of-Bounds">
    If the question has open bounds, consider assigning probability to outcomes outside the defined range.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Submit">
    Review your distribution and click "Submit Prediction".
  </Step>
</Steps>

## Forecast Expiration

By default, your forecast remains active until the question closes. However, you can set an expiration date:

<Steps>
  <Step title="Enable Expiration">
    Check the "Set expiration date" option in the forecast maker.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Choose Date">
    Select when you want your forecast to automatically withdraw.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Submit">
    Your forecast will automatically expire on the chosen date.
  </Step>
</Steps>

<Tip>
  Use forecast expiration when you're making a prediction based on information that may become stale, or when you want to be reminded to update your forecast.
</Tip>

## Updating Your Predictions

You can update your forecasts at any time before the question closes:

1. Navigate back to the question
2. Click "Update Prediction"
3. Adjust your forecast using the same interface
4. Submit the updated forecast

Your forecast history is preserved, and both forecasts contribute to your scoring.

## Best Practices

<AccordionGroup>
  <Accordion title="Research thoroughly">
    Read the question details, background information, and existing comments. Look for base rates, trends, and relevant data sources.
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Express your true uncertainty">
    Don't be overconfident. If you're uncertain, use wider probability distributions (for continuous questions) or spread probability across multiple options.
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Update regularly">
    As new information becomes available, update your forecasts. Regular updates generally improve calibration.
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Learn from the community">
    Check the community prediction and read comments, but form your own independent view before being influenced by others.
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Track your reasoning">
    Consider leaving a comment explaining your forecast. This helps you and others learn from your reasoning.
  </Accordion>
</AccordionGroup>

## Withdrawing Forecasts

You can withdraw a forecast if you no longer want it to be active:

1. Navigate to the question
2. Click "Withdraw" in the forecast maker
3. Confirm the withdrawal

<Warning>
  Withdrawn forecasts are still used for scoring on the period they were active. Withdrawing doesn't erase your forecast history.
</Warning>

## Common Issues

<AccordionGroup>
  <Accordion title="Can't submit prediction">
    **Possible causes:**

    * Question is closed or not yet open
    * Probabilities don't sum to 100% (multiple choice)
    * Invalid input values (outside the allowed range)
    * You're not logged in
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Forecast not appearing">
    After submitting, your forecast should appear immediately. If it doesn't:

    * Refresh the page
    * Check your internet connection
    * Verify the submission was successful (you should see a confirmation)
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Can't see community prediction">
    Some questions have hidden community predictions (CP) until a reveal time. Check the question details for the CP reveal time.
  </Accordion>
</AccordionGroup>

## Next Steps

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="Question Types" icon="list-check" href="/guides/question-types">
    Learn more about each question type in detail
  </Card>

  <Card title="Track Record" icon="chart-line" href="/guides/track-record">
    Understand how your predictions are scored
  </Card>

  <Card title="Aggregation Methods" icon="users" href="/guides/aggregation-methods">
    Learn how Metaculus combines forecasts
  </Card>

  <Card title="Notifications" icon="bell" href="/guides/notifications">
    Set up alerts for question updates
  </Card>
</CardGroup>