> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://mintlify.com/Metaculus/metaculus/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Introduction

> Welcome to Metaculus, the platform for forecasting and tracking predictions on future events

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        <h1 className="text-4xl sm:text-5xl lg:text-6xl font-bold text-white leading-tight">
          Welcome to Metaculus Documentation
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        <p className="mt-6 text-lg sm:text-xl text-gray-300 max-w-2xl leading-relaxed">
          Learn how to make accurate predictions, track forecasts, and participate in tournaments on the world's leading forecasting platform.
        </p>

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          <a href="/quickstart" className="inline-flex items-center justify-center px-6 py-3 text-base font-semibold rounded-full text-white bg-[#949c9f] hover:bg-[#7a8184] transition-colors shadow-lg">
            Get Started
          </a>

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            Explore API
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                  <div className="text-sm font-medium text-gray-400 dark:text-gray-400">Community Forecast</div>
                  <div className="text-2xl font-bold text-white dark:text-white">73%</div>
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              <div className="text-xs text-gray-500 dark:text-gray-500">Based on 1,247 forecasters</div>
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    <h2 className="text-3xl font-bold text-gray-900 dark:text-white">Quick start</h2>
    <p className="mt-3 text-base text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400">Get up and running with Metaculus in minutes</p>
  </div>

  <Steps>
    <Step title="Create your account">
      Sign up for a free Metaculus account at [metaculus.com](https://metaculus.com). You'll be able to start making predictions immediately.

      ```bash theme={null}
      # Or authenticate via API
      curl -X POST https://metaculus.com/api/auth/signup/ \
        -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
        -d '{"email": "your@email.com", "username": "yourname", "password": "secure123"}'
      ```
    </Step>

    <Step title="Browse questions">
      Explore open questions across various topics including technology, politics, science, and economics. Questions range from binary predictions to complex numerical forecasts.

      <Tip>Start with binary questions to familiarize yourself with the forecasting process before moving to more complex question types.</Tip>
    </Step>

    <Step title="Make your first forecast">
      Click on a question to view details, then submit your prediction. For binary questions, enter a probability between 0% and 100%. For numeric questions, provide a probability distribution.

      <Note>Your forecasts are scored against eventual outcomes using sophisticated scoring algorithms like Peer Score and Baseline Score.</Note>
    </Step>

    <Step title="Track your performance">
      View your track record to see how your predictions perform over time. Metaculus tracks your calibration, Brier scores, and overall ranking compared to other forecasters.
    </Step>
  </Steps>
</div>

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    <h2 className="text-3xl font-bold text-gray-900 dark:text-white">Explore by topic</h2>
    <p className="mt-3 text-base text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400">Dive deeper into Metaculus features and capabilities</p>
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  <CardGroup cols={3}>
    <Card title="Questions" icon="circle-question" href="/features/questions">
      Learn about the different types of questions and how they're structured
    </Card>

    <Card title="Forecasting" icon="chart-line" href="/features/forecasting">
      Master the art of making accurate predictions on Metaculus
    </Card>

    <Card title="Scoring" icon="trophy" href="/features/scoring">
      Understand how your forecasts are evaluated and scored
    </Card>

    <Card title="Tournaments" icon="flag" href="/features/tournaments">
      Compete in forecasting tournaments for prizes and recognition
    </Card>

    <Card title="Projects" icon="folder" href="/features/projects">
      Organize questions into thematic projects and communities
    </Card>

    <Card title="Leaderboards" icon="ranking-star" href="/features/leaderboards">
      Track your ranking and compare performance with other forecasters
    </Card>
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    <h2 className="text-3xl font-bold text-gray-900 dark:text-white">User guides</h2>
    <p className="mt-3 text-base text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400">Step-by-step guides for common tasks</p>
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        <h3 className="text-base font-semibold text-gray-900 dark:text-white mb-2">Making predictions</h3>
        <p className="text-sm text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400 mb-3">Learn how to submit forecasts for different question types</p>

        <div className="flex items-center text-sm font-medium text-[#949c9f] group-hover:text-[#7a8184]">
          Read guide

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        <h3 className="text-base font-semibold text-gray-900 dark:text-white mb-2">Question types</h3>
        <p className="text-sm text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400 mb-3">Understand binary, numeric, date, and multiple choice questions</p>

        <div className="flex items-center text-sm font-medium text-[#949c9f] group-hover:text-[#7a8184]">
          Read guide

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        <h3 className="text-base font-semibold text-gray-900 dark:text-white mb-2">Aggregation methods</h3>
        <p className="text-sm text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400 mb-3">How Metaculus combines individual forecasts into aggregate predictions</p>

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          Read guide

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        <h3 className="text-base font-semibold text-gray-900 dark:text-white mb-2">Track record</h3>
        <p className="text-sm text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400 mb-3">Monitor your forecasting performance and calibration over time</p>

        <div className="flex items-center text-sm font-medium text-[#949c9f] group-hover:text-[#7a8184]">
          Read guide

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    <h2 className="text-3xl font-bold text-gray-900 dark:text-white">API & integrations</h2>
    <p className="mt-3 text-base text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400">Build applications with the Metaculus API</p>
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  <CardGroup cols={2}>
    <Card title="API overview" icon="code" href="/api/overview">
      Get started with the Metaculus REST API
    </Card>

    <Card title="Authentication" icon="key" href="/api/authentication">
      Learn how to authenticate API requests with tokens
    </Card>

    <Card title="Make a forecast" icon="chart-simple" href="/api/examples/making-forecasts">
      Submit predictions programmatically via the API
    </Card>

    <Card title="Fetch questions" icon="download" href="/api/examples/fetching-questions">
      Query and retrieve question data using the API
    </Card>
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    <h2 className="text-3xl font-bold text-gray-900 dark:text-white mb-4">Ready to start forecasting?</h2>

    <p className="text-lg text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-400 mb-8 max-w-2xl mx-auto">
      Join thousands of forecasters making accurate predictions about the future. Create your account and make your first prediction today.
    </p>

    <div className="flex flex-wrap justify-center gap-4">
      <a href="/quickstart" className="inline-flex items-center justify-center px-8 py-4 text-base font-semibold rounded-full text-white bg-[#949c9f] hover:bg-[#7a8184] transition-colors shadow-lg">
        Get Started Now
      </a>

      <a href="https://github.com/Metaculus/metaculus" className="inline-flex items-center justify-center px-8 py-4 text-base font-semibold rounded-full text-gray-900 dark:text-white border border-gray-300 dark:border-[#27272a] bg-white dark:bg-[#1a1d27] hover:bg-gray-50 dark:hover:bg-[#242838] transition-colors">
        View on GitHub
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